25 November 2025

Season 7, Post 45: “The future is here”

Season 7, Post 45: “The future is here”

These were the words on the banners that welcomed visitors to the biennial Dubai Airshow. Some 150,000 attendees (your author sadly not among them) and 1,500 exhibitors descended on Dubai World Central – a purpose-built site – last week to learn more about aerospace. Events like this often combine soft power projection and staged deal signings, but beneath the surface some clear pictures emerged. Among them, urban air mobility is set to become a major future trend.

We first made the case for electric vertical take-off and landing devices (eVTOLs) in 2022 and have been impressed by Archer Aviation’s recent progress, evident during meetings in London and California earlier this year. However, it seems that visiting Dubai was to truly see and believe. Archer completed an in-country flight test campaign the week before the Airshow, while rival Joby Aviation announced that it had completed its first point-to-point air taxi flight.

The UAE is a logical pioneer for future transportation: its main roads often gridlocked with traffic, and the local transportation regulator is an ardent backer of urban air mobility. While the FAA in the United States has yet to certify either Archer’s or Joby’s fleets, Dubai’s Civil Aviation Authority has pre-emptively approved operations. Meanwhile, more vertiports (i.e. where eVTOLs can take off and land) are being approved. Beyond the first at Al Maktoum International Airport, three new vertiports have been announced (Dubai Mall, Atlantis and the American University of Dubai).

Encouragingly, both Archer’s and Joby’s tests passed without incident. More trial flights are expected, with each helping to improve visibility and increase public confidence. Other Gulf states are following the UAE’s lead: Archer recently announced plans to launch in Saudi Arabia. We expect other countries to follow suit as eVTOLs offer a potential solution to congestion. Accidents will naturally happen, but the industry could be worth $170bn within a decade.

26 November 2025

The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. The author of this piece has a personal direct investment in Archer Aviation. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.

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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager

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