28 October 2025

Season 7, Post 41: Healthier than we’ve ever been

Good news is often hard to come by. Consider then that humanity is entering a new era in global health. A recent study published in The Lancet shows that, for the first time in our species’ history, infectious disease is not the main threat. Even the once-in-a-century event of the COVID-19 pandemic was not enough to derail the trend. Between 2010 and 2023, humanity’s overall burden of disease has dropped by 12.6%.

This achievement is due to sustained efforts by a range of institutions that have enabled basic health infrastructure to become near universal. Mass vaccinations, improved maternal/neonatal care and increased hygiene standards have resulted in a new era of more robust human health. Infectious illnesses such as tuberculosis, diarrhoea, HIV, malaria and pneumonia have declined by at least 35% in the period analysed.

So, with infectious disease not the main killer, what do we need to worry about? Non-communicable diseases are now the biggest challenge. Diabetes, heart disease, cancer and obesity are the major causes of concern. As the world has become richer, issues related to diet and physical (in)activity are becoming more prevalent. Half of the world's population may be suffering from a chronic health condition while an even greater proportion of Americans are classified as either overweight or obese (see here and here).

Many healthcare systems, especially in lower income countries, are not designed for these changing dynamics, having historically focused on contagion rather than chronic care. However, things are changing – for the better. Healthcare’s paradigm shifting from reaction to pre-emption (as we have discussed in our own work) and GLP-1 drugmakers are dropping prices. Both dynamics should enable patients to become healthier.

Novo Nordisk, producer of popular weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, recently halved the US list-price of its products. These drugs (and those of its competitors) have been credited with not only aiding weight management, but also improving cardiovascular health, kidney disease and substance disorders. Taking drugs such as these may even help users reduce their weekly grocery spend. That’s surely good news for many.

29 October 2025

The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. Heptagon Capital is an investor in Novo Nordisk The author of this piece has no personal direct investment in the business. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.

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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager

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