12 October 2026

Season 8, Post 37: The energy trap

Books that we have read and reviewed on our Future Trends Blog so far this year have spanned everything from AI to longevity. A provocative new publication on the future of energy policy made for both eye-catching and thought-provoking reading. The key contention of author Richard Lyon is that renewables won’t work, as currently conceived. If correct, there are clear implications for how we think about and then invest in the future.

The ‘energy trap’, as defined by Lyon, is a self-defeating cycle where the current strategy for a renewable energy transition rapidly consumes the very fossil fuel surplus that is needed to build a viable alternative. Every prior energy revolution (wood to coal, coal to oil) has delivered more with less. Renewable energy breaks this paradigm and makes sense neither physically nor economically. Any politician who tells you otherwise is either ignorant or lying, according to Lyon.

It’s a bold contention, but Lyon brings relevant expertise, given a background spanning engineering, energy economics and the oil and gas industry. Public policy cannot outrun the fundamentals of science. Counter-arguments to Lyon might assert that he both overstates the ‘energy cannibalism’ of renewables (modern manufacturing has dramatically shortened their payback periods) and underestimates the pace of innovation in grid and storage solutions.

We would nuance the debate by reframing it. Any discussion about energy should not take the form of ‘either/or’ but ‘and.’ Put another way, global demand for reliable electricity is likely to continue rising and countries and their utilities would be best placed to respond to this conundrum by increasing supply via as many different input sources as possible. We have made the case for energy diversification since 2011 and believe that geothermal in particular should play a more prominent role in the energy mix (Lyon agrees; see also our 2025 note). At the very least, read "The Energy Trap" to engage more fully with this critical debate.

13 October 2026

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