Season 8, Post 11: Welcome to the Novacene era

Your author is an avid reader*, and Novacene was a book recently finished with a mix of fascination and unease. It is a short but provocative work that sits comfortably alongside the themes explored throughout the Future Trends series: technology as an accelerating force, humanity’s ambiguous role within it, and the long-term consequences of our choices. It is not a comfortable read, nor is it intended to be. Instead, it asks the reader to lift their gaze well beyond quarterly cycles, electoral timetables or even human lifespans, and to think in planetary terms.

James Lovelock, the work’s author, brings a unique perspective. Best known as the originator of the Gaia hypothesis, he has argued that the Earth functions as a self-regulating system, with living organisms interacting with their inorganic surroundings to maintain conditions conducive to life. Lovelock was also a prolific inventor, a climate scientist, and a long-standing voice in environmental debates, often willing to take unfashionable positions, particularly in support of nuclear power.

The core argument of Novacene is stark. Humanity, Lovelock suggests, is entering a new geological age not defined by humans themselves, but by the rise of hyper intelligent, silicon-based life. These entities, emerging from advanced artificial intelligence, will not merely serve human needs but will pursue their own objectives.

Crucially, Lovelock does not frame this as an apocalyptic scenario. On the contrary, he argues that such intelligences will have strong incentives to preserve the Earth’s biosphere, as stable planetary conditions suit both organic and inorganic life. Humans, in this framing, become a transitional species: creators of intelligence that ultimately surpasses us, yet potentially beneficiaries of a more stable planet as a result.

For those thinking seriously about future trends, Novacene makes three critical observations:

• First, it reinforces the case that AI should be engaged with, not reflexively feared; agency and intelligence are expanding forces, and attempts to suppress them may prove futile.

• Second, it highlights the need to rethink our energy systems, with nuclear power playing a far more central role in any realistic low carbon future capable of supporting advanced computation at scale.

• Third, it challenges us to adopt longer time horizons, both as investors and as citizens, recognising that the most important outcomes may lie beyond purely human-centred frameworks.

If Lovelock is right, the most consequential question is not whether technology will change the world, but whether we are wise enough to shape what comes after us.

*An annual list of my top reads (fiction and non-fiction) is available on request

25 March 2026

The above is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any forward looking statements are based on assumptions that may change. The views expressed are solely those of the author at the time of writing. Any personal investment held by the author has not influenced the content. This article should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Past performance does not predict future returns, the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.

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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager

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