Season 8, Post 35: Just scratching the surface

Most people reading this piece will have heard of Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound. Some may even have tried them (your author has not). However, a recent day spent with Novo – manufacturer of the first two listed drugs – served as a reminder of the enormity of the problem. Newly slim celebrities may be one thing, but only 2% of people living with obesity globally currently receive treatment with GLP-1 medications.

Our focus on this critical future trend dates to 2012. Back then, Novo (and its peer Lilly, the manufacturer of the other two drugs listed above) saw diabetes as a healthcare challenge, treated via insulin. There were limited ways of treating obesity, other than through lifestyle changes. Along came the modern generation of GLP-1 therapies in the early 2020s, and the market was revolutionised. Their appeal lies in effectively mimicking the body’s natural gut hormones to regulate appetite, slow digestion and stabilise blood sugar.

942m adults live with obesity (per Novo’s materials shared with us last week), a figure which is set to grow to over 1.2bn by 2035, equivalent to a 31% increase. Obesity, Novo reminded us, is associated with more than 200 other different healthcare complications. 58% of adults with diabetes have obesity, and life expectancy for a person with Type-2 diabetes is typically reduced by five years. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality globally. People living with diabetes and obesity have a 2-3 times higher risk of CVD and heart failure than those without.

Depressing statistics, but there is hope. Much of Novo’s and Lilly’s current focus is increasing GLP-1 adoption. Just 8m patients globally are treated with these drugs today, with the majority residing in the US. Multiple solutions to grow access exist. Consider that over 50% of consumers polled by Novo say that they are reluctant to initiate treatment owing to cost. 30% say they want to see early results of weight loss to stay motivated on their journey, but 33% stop treatment owing to side effects. Against this background, expect more product innovation from a wider range of healthcare businesses. The runway for growth remains enormous.

29 September 2026

Photos by the author

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