21 January 2026

Season 8, Post 3: Breaking the obesity trap

Almost 1 in 4 people globally suffer from being diabetic, obese or overweight. Despite all the headlines and celebrity endorsements for drugs such as Wegovy and Zepbound, just 7% of diabetics are treated with a GLP-1 drug, while only 2% of the obese population are treated with branded anti-obesity medicines. Instead, most are stuck in the ‘obesity trap.’

Novo Nordisk, one of the leading players in the field (and the manufacturer of Wegovy as well as the source of the above statistics) published its inaugural ‘State of Weight and Health Report’ at the start of this year. The publication highlights how people with obesity are constantly navigating multiple dynamics – genetics, lifestyles, challenges in healthcare systems, convenient fast food and so on. These factors can make losing weight and keeping it off difficult.

These ever-present tensions constitute the obesity trap. Almost half the people surveyed by Novo said that they found it more convenient to buy processed or fast food (as opposed to fresh alternatives) and over a third stated that they lacked the time to plan and prepare meals. Just under 60% felt that they were too tired or lacked the energy to exercise regularly and more than 40% said they found it difficult to fit exercise into their busy schedules.

Businesses such as Novo cannot be expected to solve all these problems. However, Novo is correct in noting that it is “only scratching the surface” in terms of addressing “large unmet needs.” These words were used by its Chief Executive when speaking at a recent conference. Solutions suggested included “lowering [drug] prices to open up the broader market.” This view was echoed by rival Eli Lilly’s Chief Executive (speaking at the same conference) who believes the answer is “all about [providing] choice… how and where people buy their medicine… so [consumers] can control their illness.” The trap is gradually breaking.

22 January 2026

The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. Heptagon Capital is an investor in Novo Nordisk. The author of this piece has no personal direct investment in the business. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.

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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager

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