Season 8, Post 10: Bites from the Big Apple

Your author spent part of the past week in New York and its environs. He learned about everything from space exploration to sound (meeting Spotify) and memory (chips) to money. Across 12 management meetings, five of which were with C-suite executives, the dominant takeaway was that everything is being digitised and transformed rapidly by AI, even sectors as traditional as building materials.

There were marked variations across the trip, both in terms of economic optimism and views on how the Iran war may affect the outlook, as well as in temperature. The mercury traversed a 20-degree range, with Central Park seeing both sun and snow. Nobody could explain the sudden shift in the weather, just as predicting the course for the global economy is inevitably complex.

Below follow our key insights, sorted alphabetically by theme for simplicity:

• AI: Almost every business we met stressed the importance of their proprietary data sets, and how these are being leveraged in an increasingly AI-driven world to deepen competitive differentiation. “AI is being infused into almost all our products,” one executive told us. A second major focus was on AI as a cost-cutting tool, used to “drive efficiency,” “reinvent how we work internally” and “prune low hanging fruit.” Confidence is high. Investors will now want to see these benefits reflected in reported earnings.

• Agentic commerce: There was no shortage of excitement about the potential for agents to transact on the part of consumers, although executives cautioned that it is “still early days” and that “consumers lacked confidence” particularly around trust, security and dispute resolution. Unsurprisingly, payment processing incumbents believe they are well positioned to benefit. Arguably the biggest near-term winners could be the owners of industrial real estate: more agents imply more e-commerce, and more e-commerce requires warehouse space.

• Data centre build: Hyperscalers “can’t deploy capital quickly enough,” according to one critical components supplier. If they fail to do so, “the marginal Dollar will go to your rival.” Build continues apace, although challenges may emerge towards the end of the decade. Secured power agreements currently only extend out to 2028. More encouragingly, discussions around accelerating permitting (for new builds) are becoming a “bipartisan issue,” we were told.

• Quantum computing: The tone of debate has shifted meaningfully over the last 12 months. Quantum is becoming increasingly a reality, with the challenge now “less about physics and more about engineering scale-up.” Commercial quantum could emerge around 2029. The potential value accretion is viewed “so large” that “adoption won’t be an issue.” Further, the scale of the opportunity reduces near-term concerns around winner-takes-all dynamics.

• Space: A highly topical conversation given current military conflict. There is “a ton of opportunity in defence,” as the Finance Director of a major player put it. Governments globally are allocating additional budget to space, increasingly seen as the next strategic frontier. Satellites, monitoring and geo-intelligence are all inherently dual use opportunities.

17 March 2026

The above is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any forward looking statements are based on assumptions that may change. The views expressed are solely those of the author at the time of writing. Any personal investment held by the author has not influenced the content. This article should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Past performance does not predict future returns, the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.

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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager

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