Season 7, Post 7: The ultimate concierge?
Your author is recently back, refreshed from a week of skiing. He and his family stayed, as they often do in an Airbnb property, which offered many benefits including the bucolic views pictured below. Although Airbnb recently reported that almost 500m nights and experiences were booked on its platform in 2024, this constitutes little more than one-in-ten nights booked away from home, according to the company.
We first made the case for the sharing economyas early as 2016. If you have an under-utilised asset such as a second home, then why not leverage it? Economics is, after all, about the efficient allocation of scarce resource. Listen to Brian Chesky, Airbnb’s co-founder and Chief Executive and he will tell you that Airbnb is now “ready for its next chapter.” Readiness is a function not just of prior planning and investments but accelerated inevitably by AI.
Airbnb has a large data set: over 5m hosts in 200+ countries. Since launching in 2008, guests have made more than 2bn cumulative arrivals. For Airbnb, the basic challenge is to get both more guests and hosts onto its platform and to drive repeat business. Thinking more boldly, however, Mr Chesky believes that Airbnb could be “a place to stay and a place to live.” Airbnb might even become a one-app lifestyle brand akin to Amazon. These comments and the prior one were made on the company’s most recent earnings call.
For a family, say, visiting a ski resort, a future vision/ version of Airbnb might provide not just accommodation, but potentially transfers to and from the airport. Imagine if the app could also provide the opportunity to purchase lift passes or pre-order skiing equipment. Need an instructor for an off-piste session, then why not ask Airbnb? Fancy a fine apres-ski dining experience, then Airbnb might be able to sort it. In-app usage might possibly grow from one-two-times a year to one-two times a day, with a corresponding bump in financials. Over time, Airbnb might become the ultimate concierge. Don’t expect miracles overnight, but the potential is certainly there. And it would certainly make arranging skiing holidays less stressful.
27 February 2025
The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. Heptagon Capital is an investor in Airbnb. The author of this piece has no personal direct investment in the business. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.
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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager
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