Season 6, Post 46: Top trending trivia

In case you missed it, our eleventh annual compendium of thematic thinking was released last week. Your author can only take credit for its content. A marvellous team put together the formatting and ensured the printing of the document (ask us if you want a hard copy). Throughout the life of this Blog – and beyond – we have consistently asserted that themes have the power to capture the imagination and stimulate debate. They also matter since they drive a core part of our investment process.

Below follow our eleven favourite pieces of thematic trivia from this year’s edition.

1: 80% of workers in manufacturing and financial services who use AI report that improves their output. The significance of all things artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines, and rightly so, given the apparent benefits the technology can bring.

2: 56% of Fortune-500 businesses leaders see AI as a risk. This matters, especially in the context of the prior statistic. Some of this concern may simply be unfamiliarity, but it behoves the advocates to address governance, privacy and ethics issues.

3: Well over $200bn will be spent this year on data centres, chips and other related equipment for developing AI. And this figure is just for the four large hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta). Previous tech cycles point to the necessity of building an infrastructure layer first, even if it may destroy shareholder value.

4: 90% of all the world’s data was created in the last 18 months. We have argued since day-one that data demand is only heading one way and that growth is exponential. Even without AI, we are being deluged with data.

5: Cyberattacks will cost the world $9.2tr in 2024. That’s equivalent to a third of US GDP or more than 25 times Apple’s last reported revenues. Data have zero value unless they secured, stored and analysed.

6: 80m kilometres of power grids worldwide must be added or upgraded by 2040. No prizes for guessing the reason why. Well, it’s not just data demand, but also the fact that most grid infrastructure is antiquated and in need of serious repair. A lot of it is also not fit for purpose, unable to handle new energy sources.

7: Solar will become humankind’s largest source of primary energy by 2050. The new incumbent at the White House may be no fan of renewable energy, but falling costs and the ease of integration of solar into grid networks is likely to fuel demand globally. Consider also that the majority of domestic American solar projects are also based in Republican districts.

8: It takes 1500 gallons of water to make just one semiconductor chip. Your author was dumbstruck when he first heard this data point and verified the statistic before publishing it. Water is necessary for survival, yet there is a structural imbalance between demand and supply. Technology can be a potential enabler to resolve this conundrum.

9: 1bn more people are going to need to be fed by 2050. The rate of population growth may be slowing, but the number of inhabitants on Planet Earth is still increasing. Given that 1,000 litres of water are needed to produce a kilogram of wheat, the food industry is in desperate need of some innovation.  

10: While 690m people suffer daily from acute hunger, every tenth adult in the world suffers from obesity. A shocking statistic, but no surprise then that the market for weight loss drugs such as Wegovy and Zepbound has expanded in the last year. To treat every obese American, however, might cost 4% of the country’s GDP.

11: The humanoid robot market may be worth $6bn by 2035. Next year might be the one in which bipedal, five-fingered robots become mainstream, aided by advances in both hardware and software. They might be working in factories or assisting the elderly. They will certainly be a hot topic in 2025, and one which will feature in detail in next year’s compendium.

Please note, the sources for all the above statistics are cited in the published document. 

26 November 2024

The above does not constitute investment advice and is the sole opinion of the author at the time of publication. Past performance is no guide to future performance and the value of investments and income from them can fall as well as rise.

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Alex Gunz, Fund Manager